6/13: Conservative Intel poll of MA-SEN (Updated with toplines)

harper

To: Conservative Intel
From: Brock McCleary, Harper Polling
Date: June 12, 2013
Re: Massachusetts Senate Special Election Poll

Democratic Congressman Ed Markey holds a formidable 12-point lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez in the race to succeed Secretary of State John Kerry. However, there are clear signs of opportunity for Gomez.

Republican and Democratic voters have put their jerseys on for their respective teams as Markey gets 80% of the Democratic vote and Gomez gets 81% of the Republican vote. Among independent voters, the race is tied at 41-41%.

ballot-1

Simply put, Gomez trails because there are more Democrats than Republicans in the state. In the next two weeks, the challenge for Gomez is to open up a sizable lead among independents. There are indications that this is possible, but this survey indicates that the race is currently tied among independents.

ballot-2

First, the bad. A Gomez appeal to independents should be tilted toward women. He trails Markey among women by 26% (55-29%) and is tied among men (44-44%).

 

Markey is getting 77% of the vote among self-identified Liberals and Gomez gets 71% of Conservatives. Among Moderates, who are 48% of the sample, Markey leads 53-39%.

 

Now, the good. At +22%, Gomez has a far better image among independents than Markey (42% favorable, 42% unfavorable). Translating that to the ballot is the challenge for Gomez. He must conquer the reflexive instinct of independent voters in Massachusetts to vote for the Democrat even if they have doubts about him.

ballot-3 ballot-4

 

The sample size for the survey is 498 registered voters.  The margin of error is +/-4.39%.  The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone survey was conducted June 10-11, 2013 by Harper Polling on behalf of Conservative Intel.

Full Toplines

Q: If the special election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Ed Markey, Democrat or Gabriel Gomez, Republican?

Markey 49%
Gomez 37%
Not sure 14%

Now, I am going to read you a list of names. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. 

Ed Markey
Favorable 50%
Unfavorable 36%
Not sure 14%

Gabriel Gomez
Favorable 45%
Unfavorable 32%
Not sure 23%

Scott Brown
Favorable 53%
Unfavorable 31%
Not sure 16%

Elizabeth Warren
Favorable 50%
Unfavorable 41%
Not sure 9%

Q: If the special election for Senate were held today, would you prefer to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?

Republican 42%
Democrat 46%
Someone Else 4%
Not sure 7%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Approve 43%
Disapprove 45%
Not sure 12%

You may have heard news reports about the Obama Administration secretly monitoring private Internet data and requiring telephone companies to hand over information about nearly all American customers’ communications.

Q: Do you believe this government action enhances national security?

Yes 41%
No 34%
Not sure 25%

Q: Do you believe that this government action threatens the privacy rights of American citizens?

Yes 53%
No 28%
Not sure 19%

Q: Do you believe that the government has acted rightly in demanding this information, or that it has exceeded its bounds?

Acted rightly 33%
Exceeded its bounds 47%
Not sure 20%

Demographics:

Gender
Female 53%
Male 47%

Age
18 – 35 19%
36 – 50 21%
51 – 65 29%
66 and older 31%

Party Affiliation
Republican 15%
Democrat 32%
Independent/Any other party 53%

Ideology
Conservative 31%
Moderate 48%
Liberal 18%
Not sure 3%

 

Crosstabs

Conducted: June 10-11, 2013
Respondents: 498
Margin of Error: +/-4.39% 

Results:

Q: If the special election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Ed Markey, Democrat or Gabriel Gomez, Republican?

Gender

Female

Male

Markey

54.79%

43.85%

Gomez

29.26%

44.39%

Not sure

15.96%

11.76%

100.00%

100.00%

Age

18 – 35

36 – 50

51 – 65

66 and older

Markey

47.69%

49.28%

44.44%

54.47%

Gomez

38.46%

34.78%

38.46%

35.77%

Not sure

13.85%

15.94%

17.09%

9.76%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party Affiliation

Republican

Democrat

Independent/Any other party

Markey

14.29%

80.49%

40.74%

Gomez

80.95%

8.13%

40.74%

Not sure

4.76%

11.38%

18.52%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Special Election Screen

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Markey

49.38%

44.19%

Gomez

39.13%

20.93%

Not sure

11.49%

34.88%

100.00%

100.00%

Ideology

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

Not sure

Markey

23.68%

53.33%

76.74%

66.67%

Gomez

71.05%

39.17%

11.63%

0.00%

Not sure

5.26%

7.50%

11.63%

33.33%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

 Now, I am going to read you a list of names. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each.

Ed Markey

Gender

Female

Male

Favorable

52.05%

47.95%

Unfavorable

26.71%

43.86%

Not sure

21.23%

8.19%

100.00%

100.00%

Age

18 – 35

36 – 50

51 – 65

66 and older

Favorable

48.00%

51.67%

49.02%

50.00%

Unfavorable

38.00%

30.00%

41.18%

33.65%

Not sure

14.00%

18.33%

9.80%

16.35%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party Affiliation

Republican

Democrat

Independent/Any other party

Favorable

14.81%

79.44%

41.67%

Unfavorable

77.78%

6.54%

41.67%

Not sure

7.41%

14.02%

16.67%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Special Election Screen

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Favorable

50.36%

43.75%

Unfavorable

39.49%

9.38%

Not sure

10.14%

46.88%

100.00%

100.00%

Ideology

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

Not sure

Favorable

27.27%

49.58%

75.00%

77.78%

Unfavorable

63.64%

37.82%

11.36%

0.00%

Not sure

9.09%

12.61%

13.64%

22.22%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Gabriel Gomez

Gender

Female

Male

Favorable

41.35%

46.78%

Unfavorable

32.33%

32.16%

Not sure

26.32%

21.05%

100.00%

100.00%

Age

18 – 35

36 – 50

51 – 65

66 and older

Favorable

51.06%

43.64%

46.53%

40.00%

Unfavorable

29.79%

34.55%

30.69%

33.00%

Not sure

19.15%

21.82%

22.77%

27.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party Affiliation

Republican

Democrat

Independent/Any other party

Favorable

77.78%

19.39%

48.68%

Unfavorable

7.41%

54.08%

26.97%

Not sure

14.81%

26.53%

24.34%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Special Election Screen

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Favorable

47.37%

19.35%

Unfavorable

33.83%

19.35%

Not sure

18.80%

61.29%

100.00%

100.00%

Ideology

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

Not sure

Favorable

68.83%

43.70%

23.26%

12.50%

Unfavorable

19.48%

31.09%

51.16%

62.50%

Not sure

11.69%

25.21%

25.58%

25.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Scott Brown

Gender

Female

Male

Favorable

47.66%

56.02%

Unfavorable

30.47%

31.93%

Not sure

21.88%

12.05%

100.00%

100.00%

Age

18 – 35

36 – 50

51 – 65

66 and older

Favorable

48.94%

47.17%

57.00%

52.69%

Unfavorable

25.53%

35.85%

34.00%

27.96%

Not sure

25.53%

16.98%

9.00%

19.35%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party Affiliation

Republican

Democrat

Independent/Any other party

Favorable

84.91%

27.66%

56.46%

Unfavorable

5.66%

51.06%

27.89%

Not sure

9.43%

21.28%

15.65%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Special Election Screen

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Favorable

54.23%

34.48%

Unfavorable

33.46%

17.24%

Not sure

12.31%

48.28%

100.00%

100.00%

Ideology

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

Not sure

Favorable

78.95%

55.17%

20.93%

11.11%

Unfavorable

11.84%

31.03%

65.12%

44.44%

Not sure

9.21%

13.79%

13.95%

44.44%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Elizabeth Warren

Gender

Female

Male

Favorable

53.03%

47.90%

Unfavorable

34.85%

44.91%

Not sure

12.12%

7.19%

100.00%

100.00%

Age

18 – 35

36 – 50

51 – 65

66 and older

Favorable

52.17%

52.73%

49.50%

47.92%

Unfavorable

36.96%

34.55%

44.55%

41.67%

Not sure

10.87%

12.73%

5.94%

10.42%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party Affiliation

Republican

Democrat

Independent/Any other party

Favorable

16.98%

83.16%

41.06%

Unfavorable

75.47%

9.47%

47.68%

Not sure

7.55%

7.37%

11.26%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Special Election Screen

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Favorable

50.19%

51.72%

Unfavorable

42.59%

20.69%

Not sure

7.22%

27.59%

100.00%

100.00%

Ideology

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

Not sure

Favorable

19.48%

55.00%

80.95%

66.67%

Unfavorable

70.13%

39.17%

14.29%

11.11%

Not sure

10.39%

5.83%

4.76%

22.22%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

 Q: If the special election for Senate were held today, would you prefer to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?

Gender

Female

Male

Republican

38.58%

44.58%

Democrat

48.82%

44.58%

Someone Else

3.15%

5.42%

Not sure

9.45%

5.42%

100.00%

100.00%

Age

18 – 35

36 – 50

51 – 65

66 and older

Republican

38.10%

38.18%

40.40%

47.92%

Democrat

52.38%

45.45%

46.46%

43.75%

Someone Else

2.38%

10.91%

4.04%

2.08%

Not sure

7.14%

5.45%

9.09%

6.25%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party Affiliation

Republican

Democrat

Independent/Any other party

Republican

90.00%

13.83%

43.62%

Democrat

8.00%

77.66%

39.60%

Someone Else

0.00%

4.26%

6.04%

Not sure

2.00%

4.26%

10.74%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Special Election Screen

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Republican

43.80%

28.57%

Democrat

46.12%

46.43%

Someone Else

3.49%

10.71%

Not sure

6.59%

14.29%

100.00%

100.00%

Ideology

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

Not sure

Republican

79.22%

37.82%

9.30%

0.00%

Democrat

18.18%

50.42%

76.74%

66.67%

Someone Else

1.30%

4.20%

6.98%

33.33%

Not sure

1.30%

7.56%

6.98%

0.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Gender

Female

Male

Approve

44.72%

41.82%

Disapprove

41.46%

47.88%

Not sure

13.82%

10.30%

100.00%

100.00%

Age

18 – 35

36 – 50

51 – 65

66 and older

Approve

34.88%

48.15%

44.33%

41.94%

Disapprove

51.16%

40.74%

44.33%

46.24%

Not sure

13.95%

11.11%

11.34%

11.83%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party Affiliation

Republican

Democrat

Independent/Any other party

Approve

12.00%

73.03%

35.57%

Disapprove

80.00%

14.61%

51.68%

Not sure

8.00%

12.36%

12.75%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Special Election Screen

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Approve

43.08%

42.86%

Disapprove

46.64%

32.14%

Not sure

10.28%

25.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Ideology

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

Not sure

Approve

21.05%

46.61%

61.36%

55.56%

Disapprove

71.05%

44.92%

18.18%

11.11%

Not sure

7.89%

8.47%

20.45%

33.33%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

You may have heard news reports about the Obama Administration secretly monitoring private Internet data and requiring telephone companies to hand over information about nearly all American customers’ communications.

Q: Do you believe this government action enhances national security?

Gender

Female

Male

Yes

42.20%

40.38%

No

33.03%

33.97%

Not sure

24.77%

25.64%

100.00%

100.00%

Age

18 – 35

36 – 50

51 – 65

66 and older

Yes

35.90%

40.82%

45.16%

39.76%

No

58.97%

28.57%

31.18%

26.51%

Not sure

5.13%

30.61%

23.66%

33.73%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party Affiliation

Republican

Democrat

Independent/Any other party

Yes

21.28%

54.32%

40.15%

No

53.19%

22.22%

33.58%

Not sure

25.53%

23.46%

26.28%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Special Election Screen

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Yes

40.85%

45.83%

No

35.74%

8.33%

Not sure

23.40%

45.83%

100.00%

100.00%

Ideology

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

Not sure

Yes

25.00%

45.38%

54.55%

44.44%

No

46.05%

30.25%

27.27%

44.44%

Not sure

28.95%

24.37%

18.18%

11.11%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Q: Do you believe that this government action threatens the privacy rights of American citizens?

Gender

Female

Male

Yes

41.35%

60.13%

No

34.62%

24.18%

Not sure

24.04%

15.69%

100.00%

100.00%

Age

18 – 35

36 – 50

51 – 65

66 and older

Yes

61.11%

56.25%

54.35%

45.00%

No

22.22%

27.08%

29.35%

31.25%

Not sure

16.67%

16.67%

16.30%

23.75%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party Affiliation

Republican

Democrat

Independent/Any other party

Yes

62.22%

37.50%

58.33%

No

15.56%

33.75%

29.55%

Not sure

22.22%

28.75%

12.12%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Special Election Screen

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Yes

54.39%

34.78%

No

28.95%

26.09%

Not sure

16.67%

39.13%

100.00%

100.00%

Ideology

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

Not sure

Yes

67.11%

48.74%

50.00%

37.50%

No

21.05%

31.93%

27.27%

25.00%

Not sure

11.84%

19.33%

22.73%

37.50%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Q: Do you believe that the government has acted rightly in demanding this information, or that it has exceeded its bounds?

Gender

Female

Male

Acted rightly

33.00%

32.00%

Exceeded its bounds

41.00%

51.33%

Not sure

26.00%

16.67%

100.00%

100.00%

Age

18 – 35

36 – 50

51 – 65

66 and older

Acted rightly

18.92%

31.91%

33.33%

38.67%

Exceeded its bounds

64.86%

48.94%

46.67%

37.33%

Not sure

16.22%

19.15%

20.00%

24.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Party Affiliation

Republican

Democrat

Independent/Any other party

Acted rightly

20.00%

39.47%

32.56%

Exceeded its bounds

60.00%

34.21%

50.39%

Not sure

20.00%

26.32%

17.05%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Special Election Screen

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Acted rightly

33.48%

20.00%

Exceeded its bounds

48.21%

40.00%

Not sure

18.30%

40.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Ideology

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

Not sure

Acted rightly

21.05%

37.50%

33.33%

33.33%

Exceeded its bounds

61.84%

40.00%

47.62%

33.33%

Not sure

17.11%

22.50%

19.05%

33.33%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

 

 

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