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9/17 Conservative Intel Poll of #Va. — McAuliffe has the upper hand

To: Conservative Intel
From: Brock McCleary, Harper Polling
Date: September 17, 2013
Re: Virginia Governor Poll

Our survey shows Democrat Terry McAuliffe leading Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli 42%-37% in a race that is being heavily affected by Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis, who is polling at 10%

As a Libertarian, the assumption that Sarvis is siphoning votes from Republican Cuccinelli is only partly true. Sarvis’ support on the ballot comes from 4% of Democrats, 7% of Republicans and 18% of independent or third party voters, some of whom are undoubtedly Libertarians.

It must be noted that third party candidates very often perform better in polling than they do at the ballot box. Therefore, the migration of Sarvis’ voters (10%) and undecided voters (11%) to one of the two candidates will determine the outcome of the race.

Sarvis’ supporters hold largely negative opinions about the two other candidates: 19% have a favorable opinion of Cuccinelli and 12% have a favorable opinion of McAuliffe; 64% have an unfavorable opinion of Cuccinelli and 71% have an unfavorable opinion of McAuliffe. A slight edge goes to Cuccinelli in the fight for Sarvis’ supporters.

Undecided voters share the same general opinions regarding the two candidates: Cuccinelli (6% favorable, 40% unfavorable) and McAuliffe (7% favorable, 29% unfavorable). While this shows a slight edge for McAuliffe among undecided voters, a full 55% have yet to form an opinion of Cuccinelli and 63% have yet to form an opinion of McAuliffe.

There is clearly a significant pool of voters, largely independent, who will tune into the race over the course of the remaining seven weeks of the campaign. Cuccinelli and McAuliffe must delicately make a play for voters who generally dislike them both if they are to win the race.

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 779 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-3.51%. The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted September 15-16, 2013 by Harper Polling on behalf of Conservative Intel.

Crosstabs here.

Topine Results

Q: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for: Ken Cuccinelli, Republican, Terry McAuliffe, Democrat or Robert Sarvis, Libertarian?

Cuccinelli…………37%
McAuliffe………….42%
Sarvis………………10%
Not sure……………11%

Now, I am going to read you a list of names. Please indicate whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each.

Ken Cuccinelli

Favorable………….34%
Unfavorable………..47%
Not sure……………18%

Bob McDonnell

Favorable…………..33%
Unfavorable………..40%
Not sure……………28%

Terry McAuliffe

Favorable…………..28%
Unfavorable………..41%
Not sure…………….31%

Q: In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely support: Chris Christie, Republican or Hillary Clinton, Democrat?

Christie……………..41%
Clinton………………41%
Not sure…………….18%

Q: In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely support: Marco Rubio, Republican or Hillary Clinton, Democrat?

Rubio…………………40%
Clinton……………….47%
Not sure……………..13%

Q: In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely support: Rand Paul, Republican or Hillary Clinton, Democrat?

Paul…………………..42%
Clinton……………….50%
Not sure………………7%

Q: Do you support or oppose repealing the new health care law known as Obamacare, which is set to take full effect in January?

Support………………43%
Oppose………………42%
Not sure……………..15%

Q: Some people say that the new health care law is so bad that an effort to repeal it should be attached to a bill necessary to keep the government running. Do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea for opponents of the health care reform law to risk shutting down the government in an effort to get rid of the law?

Good idea……………30%
Bad idea……………..53%
Not sure……………..17%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s handling of the situation in Syria?

Approve……………..36%
Disapprove………….46%
Not sure…………….19%

Q: Do you support the goals and ideals of the Tea Party?

Yes…………………30%
No…………………..47%
Not sure……………22%

Gender

Female…………….53%
Male………………..47%

Party Affiliation
Republican………….31%
Democrat……………35%
Independent/other….34%

Age
18 – 35………………..17%
36 – 50………………..37%
51 – 65………………..34%
66 and older…………12%

Race/Ethnicity
White………………….73%
Black………………….14%
Other…………………..13%

Ideology
Conservative………….40%
Moderate………………45%
Liberal………………….15%

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